Mayawati has proved unpredictable once again
The BSP claims to be a victim but it is this party which has gained the most.It is the only beneficiary from alliance with the SP and the RLD.
Its chief, Mayawati,however,has painted a different picture.It has claimed on Monday and Tuesday that Yadav votes were divided because of family feud ( differences with Shivpal Singh Yadav) and ,therefore,she could not gain from the alliance.
She is right so far as she has said that there was no increase in vote-share which was expected after the alliance.To her it meant that SP’s traditional supporters did not solidly back her party.
It is true that in the just-concluded elections the BSP vote-share marked no increase from 2014.But often there is no co-relation between the vote-share and the seat-share for a variety of reasons.
Her seat-share has jumped from zero in 2014 to 10. In contrast,the SP vote-share in 2019 came down by more than four per cent.The number of seats remained the same (five).Party president’s wife Dimple Yadav was defeated in Kannauj and two of his other family members,too, were losers.
Clearly, the party’s alliance with the BSP has not helped.Not has helped its alliance with the RLD.
Senior SP leader Shivpal who has formed his own outfit was a factor but only in a few constituencies like Firozabad where he was himself a candidate.He has not caused much damage to the BSP in most of other places.
If the BSP has got less number of seats than expected it is because most of Dalits did not vote for Mayawati unlike the past. Many of them supported the BJP because of Narendra Modi.
However,Mayawati has blamed the SP for winning only ten seats and found it an excuse to go for separation and fight by-elections alone.
She might have decided to go for it because of her shrinking base in the rural areas and not because of the SP.The party has not fought by-elections since 2009.Even in 2018 when the two parties had joined hands after two decades the BSP had not contested any of three seats where Lok Sabha by-polls were held. One of them was fought by the RLD and the the other two by SP.
Her decision to contest by-elections and to contest without alliance must be,in this background, for different reasons.The separation for any reason,however, has sent a wrong message.Future opposition alliance may not be easily stitched.This is the second time that the SP and BSP alliance has faced trouble.The same thing had happened in 1995 after joining hands in 1993.
The other suffer in the just concluded general elections was the Congress.It could win only one seat (Raebareli) and lost its traditional Amethi seat.Politics,like cricket,is a game of uncertainties.
