Bihar Assembly Election 2025 Exit Polls: NDA set to retain power, Mahagathbandhan trails
Patna – Bihar’s political landscape appears to favor the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) once again. Exit polls released on Tuesday evening suggest that the ruling coalition is likely to retain power in the state.
Voting for the second and final phase concluded on Tuesday across 122 constituencies. The first phase took place on November 6. Counting for all 243 seats will happen on November 14.
The NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP, aims to continue its two-decade rule. On the other side, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, backed by Congress, seeks to end Kumar’s long political dominance.
Background and Political Contest
In 2015, the RJD and JD(U) had briefly allied and won the election, but the partnership collapsed soon after. Since then, Tejashwi Yadav has tried to revive his party’s lost ground. Veteran JD(U) leader Bijendra Prasad Yadav, one of the longest-serving cabinet members, contests again from Supaul for his eighth term.
Exit Poll Projections
Nearly all major surveys predict a clear NDA win.
- Chanakya Strategies projects NDA at 130–138 seats and Mahagathbandhan (MGB) at 100–108.
- P-Marg gives NDA a stronger lead with 142–162 seats and MGB between 80–98.
- ABP News predicts NDA at 133–148, MGB at 87–102, and Others at 3–5.
- JVC Poll places NDA between 135–150 seats, INDIA bloc 88–103, and Others 3–6.
- Dainik Bhaskar estimates NDA’s tally at 145–160, MGB 73–91, and Others 5–7.
- Matrize projects NDA 147–167, MGB 70–90, Jan Suraaj 0–2, Others 2–8.
- People’s Pulse predicts NDA 133–159, MGB 75–101, and Others 2–8.
Most polls also suggest minimal gains for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, likely to secure 0–3 seats.
Breakdown by Party (People’s Insight Poll):
- BJP: 68–72 seats
- JD(U): 55–60 seats
- LJP: 9–12 seats
- HAM: 1–2 seats
- RJD: 65–72 seats
- Congress: 9–13 seats
- Left Parties: 11–14 seats
Record Voter Turnout
Bihar witnessed historic participation in this election. The Election Commission reported 67.14% turnout in the second phase by 5 p.m. Kishanganj topped with 76.26%, followed by Katihar 75.23% and Purnia 73.79%. Nawada saw the lowest at 57.11%.
Past Context and Comparison
In the 2020 assembly polls, the RJD won 75 seats and emerged as the single largest party. The BJP followed with 74, and JD(U) managed 43. The NDA narrowly crossed the majority mark with 125 seats, while the opposition finished at 110.
Looking Ahead
The final results on November 14 will determine whether Nitish Kumar secures another term or Tejashwi Yadav reshapes Bihar’s political future. For now, the numbers favor continuity, as exit polls signal a steady comeback for the NDA.
