As Kohli nears Tendulkar’s ODI tally, experts weigh his chances of breaking the record

Sydney — Virat Kohli walked into the crease in Sydney carrying the weight of two consecutive ducks and uncertainty about his future in cricket. Yet he delivered for India. He scored a fluent 74 off 81 balls and guided the team to a solid victory. With this innings, he moved past Kumar Sangakkara to become the second-highest run-scorer in ODIs.

Kohli now has 14,255 ODI runs, trailing Sachin Tendulkar’s 18,426. The record still looms large. Fans are already asking: Can Kohli reach the pinnacle of ODI runs?

Let’s examine the numbers and probabilities.

Current standings
Kohli: 14,255 ODI runs. Second on the list.
Tendulkar: 18,426 ODI runs. The record-holder.
Runs needed for Kohli to surpass Tendulkar: 4,172.

Upcoming matches
Assuming India reaches the final of the 2027 World Cup and that match marks Kohli’s retirement, he has around 23 ODIs left. These include 12 matches in the currently announced schedule through 2026 and 11 matches at the 2027 World Cup.

Performance scenarios
Analysts considered three run-per-innings bands over the remaining matches:

• Conservative: 40 runs per innings, totaling 920 runs.
• Career standard: 55-58 runs per innings, totaling 1,265 to 1,335 runs.
• Peak form: 60+ runs per innings with one or two big centuries, totaling 1,350 to 1,500 runs.

Simulations of thousands of season-tails using these assumptions show that Kohli surpassing Tendulkar is highly improbable. The share of outcomes where he overtakes Tendulkar hovers around 1 percent.

Projected totals
Even if Kohli performs at his peak, he could add about 1,500 runs to his tally. This would bring him close to 16,000 ODI runs. While he would remain one of the greatest in cricket history, Tendulkar’s record would likely remain untouched. Crossing 15,000 or 16,000 runs would still place him among the elite, making him only the second batter ever to reach those heights.

Conclusion
Kohli’s pursuit of Tendulkar’s record faces steep numerical and career-time constraints. While he continues to dominate on the field, the Tendulkar benchmark appears out of reach if the 2027 World Cup is indeed his final ODI. Nevertheless, his continued consistency and ability to add thousands of runs further cement his status as one of the modern greats.

Fans can celebrate his milestone achievements while acknowledging that Tendulkar’s record remains a towering benchmark. Kohli’s legacy, even if he falls short, continues to inspire the next generation of cricketers.