Bengaluru, 28 September (HS): These days, there are several theories, logic and claims about the possibilities of a probable Third Wave of the catastrophic Covid-19 pandemic. The predictions about a possible third wave have almost turned out to become another dubious weather forecast bulletin with the earlier warnings of August 3rd week and September 3rd week turning out to be a hoax.
However, Dr Vishnu Bhat, senior Pediatrician and former Director of, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research(JIPMER)-Puducherry in a freewheeling interview, is very candid and well guarded in his viewpoint: The third wave is anyone?s guess. Today nobody can say what will happen. It all depends upon the Epidemiologists? and Virologists?. The two doses of vaccinations will definitely help in dipping the deaths unlike the first and the second waves as the elders have become resistant?
?According to some people there may not be a third wave at all as the immunity system will be different now. In Covid-19 infection, immunological problems will play a vital role. Irrespective of the third wave making its presence or not, we cannot take a lenient approach. It may come or may not come. But it?s always better to be prepared, he warns.
Vaccination to people below 18 years: These days? cases of children complaining of cold and cough, running nose are on the rise. Although the number may not be at an alarming stage, it has become a worrisome factor to young parents. Dr Vishnu Bhat tries to dispel such a notion: For every pandemic, there are three stages like starting point, increasing to an unprecedented high and going off, once humans become resistant to such infections. The vaccination groups may have to change and it?s quite possible that sooner or later India may also decide to vaccinate all those below the age of 18 years.
In spite of the third wave claims, various state governments are giving a go-ahead for all public grouping activities. But Dr Vishnu Bhat wishes to reassure: The governments are taking such decisions as the pandemic related mortality rate has dipped below one per cent. It?s natural and expected in the prevailing circumstances. The economy has been badly affected in some areas and they need to strike a balancing act?
?Third Wave Most Unlikely: No doubt, the decisions are based on the numbers announced officially, in India we?re also fast in making dubious claims. Every now and then fraudulent characters are caught for concocting records, certificates and fake portrayals of facts and figures. On the whole, the third wave is most unlikely and children also may not be affected. But it?ll take at least six more months to confide that the pandemic is over?
?The system has also geared up to meet the eventualities. They have developed huge infrastructure for children ventilators and many hospitals have set up oxygen plants. We will be in a better position to handle the situation, unlike the previous two waves. But the pandemic is not bound to disappear, anyway points out Dr Vishnu Bhat.
Problems less with the Children: It?s what we term Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in children(MIS-C). In order to attend to the ailments relating to blood pumping to the heart, steroids are suggested. And even these problems are less in children as the response of the body is entirely different in comparison to other individuals of different age groups, he feels.
Earlier Doctors were Scared: The problems arise only when the body is not able to handle severe complications leading to fatality. If treated properly there will be fewer deaths, he says. Not only that, in the previous two waves even the doctors were scared of treating the patients individually. Probably such hardcore facts also added to the fatality rate. Now you have many hospitals having enough doctors and the situation has changed a lot for the better. There aren?t many cases these days contrary to some perception among the general public, assures Dr Vishnu Bhat.
Booster Dose Not Affordable: On a mixed opinion among the medical fraternity about the necessity of taking or not taking a booster dose, he rules out: Yes some studies have suggested it but there is an enormous challenge in the coverage. In the first case, where do we have availability of such a huge proportion? The situation is like we have one Mango and need to give it to 10 people. So what do you do other than cutting the fruit into ten pieces? Shot back Dr Vishnu Bhat.
Even the US cannot boast of the Booster Dose? Thanks to two doses of vaccinations, we can assume 70-80 per cent immunity. By the booster dose, we can have the immunity of more than 90 per cent. No doubt immunity will be more but whether we can afford it or not is the problem. Here, the (Health) manpower is less while the population is more. Hence, coverage is not an easy task. Forget us, even the United States and the United Kingdom haven?t thought of the third dose, he says.
More Vaccines, less the number of Deaths: Many health experts continue to warn that despite the number of doses, the different variants of Covid-19 continue to remain for years and we only have to learn to live with them. For such an impression he clarifies: Once we start handling it will become another form of common cold and flu virus. Thirty years ago people died out of Smallpox and Rabies. But thanks to vaccination there are no cases. However, rabies cases do come now and then. Even if we don?t vaccinate also the virus will not completely disappear and on the other hand, it will learn how to make a living!
Kerala Cases High with fewer Deaths: Taking note of the alarming conditions prevailing in the coastal Kerala state, Dr Vishnu Bhat summed up: The number of cases in that state might be more but not deaths. Mortality is under control or else the fatalities would have been more. On the whole, the national mortality rate itself is less than one per cent.
