February 23, 2025

Macron hosts Ukraine Summit with European leaders amid US tensions

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Tensions over Ukraine’s future will intensify on Monday as US officials begin talks with Russia in Riyadh, while Emmanuel Macron convenes European leaders in Paris to assert Europe’s role in the peace process. The US and Russia talks, expected to be followed by a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, may focus on the possibility of Ukrainian neutrality and a potential US-Russia division of spheres of influence. European leaders, including Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz, and Donald Tusk, will gather in Paris to respond to US actions and pressure the US to include Europe and Kyiv in discussions.

A key issue at the Paris summit will be how Europe can support Ukraine with security guarantees, possibly including NATO membership if Russia breaches a ceasefire. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stressed that Ukraine should have the right to decide when to end the war. However, despite these discussions, neither Ukraine nor European leaders are included in the Riyadh talks. The US envoy, Keith Kellogg, has defended the absence, claiming European views will still be considered.

The US stance, led by President Trump, has raised concerns, with some fearing that Russia may push for Ukraine’s neutrality and a post-war carve-up of Europe reminiscent of the 1945 Yalta Agreement. Trump’s recent phone call with Putin and his suggestions on Ukraine’s future have shocked European leaders. Meanwhile, Macron remains cautious but committed to strengthening Europe’s security capabilities. He also advocates for a distinct European force, citing the need for an independent defense strategy. European defense spending is expected to rise as leaders plan a significant security package in response to these ongoing developments.

Ultimately, European leaders are caught between balancing relations with the US and ensuring a peaceful, sovereign future for Ukraine. They aim to prevent a unilateral peace deal that could leave Ukraine vulnerable while working toward a more united and secure Europe.