IMD predicts warm november, winter delays arrival

As Diwali festivities wind down, winter remains elusive in Delhi-NCR. Despite a slight drop in temperatures, the region continues to experience high air pollution levels. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that October was the warmest since 1901, with mean temperatures 1.23 degrees Celsius above normal. October’s average temperature hit 26.92 degrees Celsius, while the minimum temperature reached 21.85 degrees Celsius, exceeding the normal of 20.01 degrees.

Typically, winter in Delhi begins in late November or early December and lasts until early March. However, IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra stated that current weather patterns do not suggest an impending winter. He noted that the warm conditions stem from the absence of western disturbances and the influence of easterly winds from low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal. These factors prevent the usual drop in temperatures. For at least the next two weeks, temperatures in northwestern India are expected to remain 2-5 degrees above normal.

The IMD does not categorize November as a winter month, reserving that classification for January and February, with December providing the first hints of colder weather. Additionally, the ongoing neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific may delay the onset of winter. Mohapatra mentioned that the weather patterns could shift towards La Niña conditions by December, which typically brings colder weather to northern India.

La Niña influences the winter jet stream, generating colder temperatures across regions like Afghanistan and Iran. This phenomenon is often associated with cooler-than-normal temperatures in northern India. Earlier forecasts suggested a severe winter could affect north India, particularly the northwest and central regions, linked to potential La Niña development.

In contrast, the southern peninsula anticipates above-normal rainfall this November, especially in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and parts of Karnataka. The IMD predicts that rainfall will remain normal to above normal across most of India, except for the northwest and some central regions.